FORECAST: Showers continue, storms tonight
Thu, 18 Apr 2013 12:32:37 GMT —
The flood potential, and chance for severe weather, are the main topics today.
First off, there is so much rain, and even more on the way, the ground doesn't know what to do with it all.
Much of the counties in our area are under some form of flood statement.
Flood warnings, which already exist in the Tri-Cities area, especially Midland from the Tittabawassee and Chippewa rivers meeting will get even worse and more numerous.
Shower activity will calm down during the day, but our western and extreme northern counties can expect a consistent dumping of water through the afternoon.
Later today, buckle your seatbelts.
The SPC has put out a moderate risk for severe weather for SW Michigan, and we remain under the slight risk.
The proximity to the moderate risk area is troubling, as well as the idea of breaking 70 degrees for surface heating to aid in building thunderheads.
As of right now, expecting severe weather any time after the late afternoon hours and into the evening is a good bet.
The cold front will not arrive until overnight, and this is where the most unstable air and severe weather will be.
Current expectations from myself and NOAA is for one long gigantic squall line from us down into Texas along the cold front.
My only concern is the daytime heat, and breaking 70 with this much moisture and such a fast, and dramatic, change from cool to hot is big.
Without going into the mechanics of the atmosphere, the instability for severe weather is there, but not as enhanced as it should be to produce anything worse than half inch hail and strong winds.
The heating affects this, to a large degree, and if these warm temps occur in a broad area, then expect much more in the way of severe chances.
In all seriousness, wind and flooding will be heavy and hard, and fast as well.
There does remain a very small chance for a tornado, but this is very dependent on a multidue of factors, many of which do not exist yet and require that heating in the afternoon.
Be prepared for possible power outages; Consumers Energy is cautioning people to be ready.
Remember, for a thunderstorm to be considered severe it must have one of three things, or of course any combination of the three.
These are hail an inch in size or greater, winds over 58 mph, or a tornado.
The next 7 days are much calmer.
SUN, yes sunshine, dominates this weekend, athough we give up on warmth in order to have it.
Afterwards, the work week looks wet as the next system moves through.
April showers.... well you know the drill.
April flooding and severe weather.... well that brings me saying to stay prepared, have a flashlight/candles/light source if power goes out, and always have a plan for safety.
Stay with NBC25 and the weather team and check out our website www.minbcnews.com for continuing updates.
-Meteorologist Ahmad Bajjey