From Summer back to Autumn
Sat, 05 Oct 2013 03:30:04 GMT —
I've made some significant adjustments to our forecast since yesterday. (I thought I might have to do this since our forecast models often struggle during a transitional season like Fall.)
The forecast models -- and I consistently compare four or five of them -- still do not agree on what our weather is going to do over the next 5 days, but the better performing one in recent times is suggesting the warm air will hang-on for another day.
The North American Model, or "NAM" as Meteorologists call it, is slowing the eastward progression of a big upper-level low that's now sitting in western Nebraska (image 2).
This means we'll be on the warm side of this weather system through Sunday.
I've therefore adjusted Sunday's high upward and increased our chances for showers and storms to "likely" on Sunday (image 1).
Once this low slides on top of us by late Monday night and early Tuesday morning (image 3), we'll firmly be entrenched in colder air with showers still spiraling around this low.
Because this low will be cut-off from the main jetstream by this time, it will only slowly move away and we'll continue to experience a cool northerly flow on its backside into the middle part of next week.
Therefore, scattered showers will be a possibility through at least Tuesday and our temperatures will stay on the cool side until Thursday.
Meteorologist Ahmad Bajjey and I will keep you informed this weekend on any further updates.