Is Spring Here to Stay?
Sat, 27 Apr 2013 00:53:45 GMT —
Like today, tomorrow should feature plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures.
In fact, with south winds continuing to draw warm air into the region, we should be a few degrees warmer.
So after our wettest April on record and a rather cold one with temps. averaging around 3° below average, is Spring here to stay?
No, not necessarily.
Our long range computer models show big changes are coming late next week.
On Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will keep most of us high and dry (the exception will be north of the Tri-Cities where a few drops of rain are possible again).
As image-1 shows, a fair weather ridge will develop over Michigan in response to a disturbance moving into Illinois.
Although this disturbance could generate a few showers here on Sunday, temperatures will still break the 60° mark.
Tuesday's pattern (image-2) features a big trough of low pressure developing in the northern Plains, with a southwesterly flow aloft through Wisconsin and Michigan.
This pattern looks warm enough to generate highs in the 70s for the first part of the workweek.
That trough of low pressure in the Plains will cut-off from the jetstream by Thursday, and sit nearly stationary over the Midwest by Friday (image-3).
When lows cut-off from the jetstream, they can linger for days -- even a week -- over the same general area.
This isn't promising news for Spring-lovers in Michigan.
If our models are correct and this low does develop, cloudy, showery weather will return just in time for the beginning of May.
And this dismal pattern could linger through the weekend and beyond -- depending upon how long it takes for this cut-off low to "fill" or "spin itself out."
There is always a chance that a long-range forecast like this one won't verify.
So we can hope that's the case this time.